After listening to a number of experts and insiders, including a former Trump member of the Comptroller’s Office, there doesn’t seem to be any disagreement from anyone—-liberal, conservative, Friedmanite, Gilderite: we are in for serious, very serious inflation.
According to one insider, the Fed is in a massive pickle: “They can’t raise rates yet they can’t NOT raise rates.”
For 30 years, we have ridden an underpriced/undervalued tech sector. One column at www.wntropyeconomics.com suggested an iPhone really contains $41,000 in value. I agree. I think for the last 30 years all tech has been artificially devalued and underpriced, sort of like the old Amazon concept of taking losses for years to build market share.
That time has now come. Now, the companies are posting record gains (see today’s Down, over 35,800) without matching production/productivity/or value growth. Their rising prices are simply reflecting inflated dollars.
The interesting thing is that economists of all stripes simply cannot suggest a way out for either of these morasses: inflation and the labor market. I read column after column on the labor shortage, but no one to date has satisfactorily explained why we still have labor shortages, despite higher wages and available jobs everywhere.
Let me take a stab at it, because I think it is multiple explanations.
First, as most do mention, the China Virus lockdowns took a lot of women permanently or semipermanently out of the workforce. In case you didn’t notice, homeschooling is up either by a factor of two or by a factor of four, depending on who you talk to. One major homeschool convention manager says his numbers show homeschooling has doubled, to about 10 million, but his competitor, who uses a different analysis, says that with “part-time” public schooling homeschoolers (who will only attend art/music classes, other specialized classes, or sports) the number is closer to 20 million!Either way, you are looking at between 10 and 20 million (mostly) mothers taken out of the work force.
Second—-and this is one not even addressed by the Hoax Business News media, resistance to corporate vax mandates is driving millions out of the workforce. We have yet to even begin to feel this impact as many (most?) employees are still hoping and praying their companies will come to their senses. But the CEOs are Vaxiopaths, and want to cow-tow to the Demented Pervert’s requirements. I don’t see a whole lot of movement there on either side until the CEOs get a spine.
Third, a point also never addressed by the Hoax Business News media, the China Virus has rearranged priorities, and often not in a good way. Now, many people want to stay isolated, disdaining work. On top of this is the cultural rot that says that “all work must be meaningful.” HOGWASH! Work by its definition is not play. Very, very few humans in history have been able to support themselves by playing (sports, art, music, or other). No. For most people work will be somewhat unpleasant, structured, inconvenient, and difficult. That’s why it’s called work. Jordan Peterson calls this “suffering,” but it’s the same thing.
Finally, we have unemployement benefits incentives, which are now running out or have run out in most states. These absolutely played a role, but I personally think it is less of a role than many of the “experts” ascribe to it.
So we have a labor market that won’t grow; we have companies claiming the inflated value of their stocks as evidence of their performance, and we have government authorities from the Fed to the Rutabaga both unwilling and unable to do anything about inflation.
Buckle up. Get plenty of liquidity. Learn how to fix stuff yourself. Even if the GOP wins the 2022 midterms and even if Trump returns in 2025, the gubment’s ability to fix many of these cultural problems is going to be limited. Trump could do more than anyone else . . . but he ain’t Moses.
I was really enjoying the "news of today is the history of tomorrow" daily tweets/summary and then twitter had to go and ruin that. Any plans to continue that in some other medium?
Yes. It's up today at www.uncoverdc.com ---no telling how long I can stay there. Apparently I'm "snarky" which is the point. Eventually it may move here.
Thanks. Been following your posts since 2016. Was super bummed when they banned your first account and had a feeling it wouldnt be too long before the next one followed given the state of twitter today. Checking your feed every morning had become as routine as drinking my morning cup of coffee lol.
I think I'm safe here.
I was really enjoying the "news of today is the history of tomorrow" daily tweets/summary and then twitter had to go and ruin that. Any plans to continue that in some other medium?
Yes. It's up today at www.uncoverdc.com ---no telling how long I can stay there. Apparently I'm "snarky" which is the point. Eventually it may move here.
Thanks. Been following your posts since 2016. Was super bummed when they banned your first account and had a feeling it wouldnt be too long before the next one followed given the state of twitter today. Checking your feed every morning had become as routine as drinking my morning cup of coffee lol.