Weighing the Congressional Variables

2022 could be bad for DemoKKKrats, could be horrible

Following the redistricting in several states that went highly in favor of DemoKKKrats (in blue states) or not nearly as much in favor of Republicans (in red states) as it could have, many pundits have soured on GOP chances for a massive landslide in 2022 and are settling for a “mini-slide” of 20-30 pickups.

It’s too early either way to offer predictions. It is true that redistricting ‘seems” to mean the Ds won’t lose as many seats as it was once thought. But there are many other factors at work.

*First, we are already at 24 DemoKKKrat incumbent resignations come November and one Republican (Devin Nunes) for a net so far of 23 DemoKKKrat seats to be defended with new people. Very many of these seats (as is Nunes’s seat) are considered “safe,” though that is always a mushy concept in elections.

A great deal has to do with individual candidates and funding.

*Second, it is true that the GOP picked up several seats in 2020, which will reduce the impact of the wave.

*On the other side of the coin, however, we have solid shifts in voter registrations toward Republicans. It doesn’t matter how much you reshape the electorate if the electorate overall is becoming more conservative. This is obviously the case in FL, PA, and to a lesser degree, AZ.

*Issues play a key role, as we just saw in Virginia. In New Jersey, a nondescript Republican nearly won the governorship even without key issues such as Communist Racist Theory in the classrooms and hostile school boards. The message of New Jersey may be as important for what almost happened as that of Virginia for what did happen.

Have DemoKKKrats flipped a single issue? No. Not even close. They are now the party of anti-family, pro-vax lockdowns/mandates, big taxes, bigger inflation, and a demented presidential turnip. (More on him in a minute)

*There is a constant, significant shift of Hispanics to the right, and a smaller but equally steady shift of blacks (especially males) to the right. These are, note . . .mostly DemoKKKrats who will now be reapportioned into new districts—-but with changing ideas.

*Independents do not like today’s DemoKKKrat Party. Who can blame them? We have inflation right now at over 6% and heading up; a Rutabaga in office whose answer to inflation is price controls on meat packers; and the overall message as anemic as Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” or Michael Obama’s #BringBackOurGirls. In other words, they have no plan.

*The China Virus is dissipating even as the caseloads are exploding. Say what? By becoming nearly the “common cold” or the “flu” (as I always said it was), people are slowly wanting to get back to normal and are no longer being terrorized by the lawn gnome from the CDC, Dr. Fallacy and his house of horrors. This does not work in the DemoKKKrats’ favor, as the only thing they have to offer is fear itself.

*Finally, and most important, the Demented Pervert at the top, whose unfavorables in a Gallup poll today reached their highest levels yet (mid-50s). I put little stock in polls, but we have enough now darting into the mid-30s to, again, be a canary in the coal mine. Where would a “fair” poll put the Rutabaga? Probably 40% or lower.

This is extremely significant. “Experts” say if he is below 45%, the Republicans could be looking at a 30-50 seat gain.

But what if he’s below 40%? This is pretty much uncharted territory.

I think it might be even worse than expected, if only because I do not think Biteme will—-or can—-”improve.” He’s got the mandates and they are trying to revive the Patriot Day hate parade, but it ain’t working. Trump was probably smart to cancel his January 6 speech and let Patriot Day just fade away. Sooner or later, DemoKKKrats will have to drop it because they will be forced in a court of law to provide the unseen footage of police calmly ushering in guys with Viking hats and American flags (not guns); of cops beating to death a helpless woman in a tunnel; of a murderer who now walks free shooting an unarmed woman who posed no threat to him.

Sooner or later these videos will emerge, and will be devastating to the DemoKKKrats insurrection hoax, though in a death by a thousand cuts rather than a single Samurai beheading.

It’s too soon to tell which of the two sets of factors will prove the most important, but if I’m guessing, it is that Biteme’s steadily collapsing presidency will cause another 10-12 incumbents to vamoose; will weaken virtually all DemoKKKrat candidates; and will cause indies to reject the Party of Slavery like it was rancid meat.

Larry Schweikart

Rock drummer

Film maker

NYTimes #1 bestselling author

Political pundit

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