Vlad's Napoleon Campaign

One should learn from one's victories, as well as one's defeats

This isn’t over. Not by a long stretch. But it looks like Putin may have badly miscalculated.

Before we get to that, though, here are just a few of the things that could go wrong in the next few days:

*The Demented Pervert could take Adam Kinzinger’s suggestion to set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would immediately draw in NATO (read: US) aircraft and open us up to direct war casualties. Translation: escalation.

*Pootie-poot could bristle at the losses he’s taking and the humiliation of not being able to grab Kiev immediately and escalate on his own—-bio, chem, or God forbid nukes. I don’t think he’s crazy, just extremely aggressive—but then again, I didn’t think he’s go in in the first place.

*Russia could withdraw and some moronic NATO/Euro leaders could think they “won,” and thus renew efforts to bring Ukraine into NATO, or try to convince Finland to join.

However, while we can always be surprised, I don’t think any of these three will occur. I think at most Russia has a week to either win decisively, or withdraw, probably declaring victory on the way out.

Even as this was building up, some of us who did not think an invasion was coming pointed to the lack of serious wartime logistics, including fuel/ammo dumps and medical facilities close to the front. In fact, we were right. Putin invaded without those things and is scrambling to fix the logistical situations now. It’s probably too late.

He should have learned from his own history with Napoleon, who spent a year pre-positioning food stores, cementing agreements with towns and cities along the way for supplies, guarding his line of march, and so on. Contrary to popular opinion, Napoleon was not unprepared. David Chandler’s masterful The Campaigns of Napoleon emphasize the tons of food he had waiting or committed, the hay he had accumulated in stockpiles along the way, and the bridges he had controlled all the way to the Russian border. What Napoleon was unprepared for was the sheer vastness of Russian geography and the tactical unpredictability of Czar Alexi, who retreated rather than lose soldiers in heads-up fights with a much larger enemy.

At least, until space and the constant erosion of the French forces for guarding that massive supply lines evened the odds at Borodino.

Putin, of course, faces no such daunting geographical challenge with a next-door neighbor. But logistics is still a cruel master, and once the Russian offensive slowed down, the scales tilted slightly more toward the Ukrainians.

Now, no one knows what to believe coming out of Ukraine, including whether there was a “ghost” pilot who shot down six Russkie fighter planes (my military sources say that was legit). But a few things seem clear, even from second hand news:

*Zalensky is emerging as a fighter, as someone to whom Ukrainians can rally. This of course was not at all guaranteed at the time of the invasion, so Pootie-poot may be forgiven for not seeing that coming.

*Ukrainians have contested far more territory than was expected. Just about three weeks ago I published a news piece in Today’s News of a poll that said 50% of Ukrainians wouldn’t even offer “passive resistance” to the Russians if they invaded. Well, it looks like that poll is about as good as all the 2016 presidential polls.

*As of today, February 26, the Russians still have not seized control of the skies, and lost two paratroop transport planes. More important, they are hampered from conducting night operations and . . . most important . . . those massive supply depots that Putin is counting on are themselves targets, requiring fighter cover at all times.

*According to the “reports” (again, caution) the first Russian troops in were new recruits, while Putin held back his veteran units. There are two ways to look at this: one is, the vets will be the hammer that finishes off Ukraine; but another interpretation is that Putin might have, in fact, been concerned that the resistance would be substantial, and thus he would lose a large number of his best soldiers.

*Most of all—-and something I hear few analysts commenting on—-Mikhail Gorbachev, with a vastly superior military in the 1980s was forced to withdraw from Afghanistan because of aid sent to the Afghans from President Ronald Reagan and Congressman Charlie Wilson.

Gorbachev did not escalate, nuke Afghanistan, or simply raze every city, even with far more firepower and the ability to do so. One reason was he was being hounded by Russian housewives who were tired of seeing their sons killed for nothing.

In case you haven’t noticed, Russia has a birth replacement problem, like all of the West, but at a far more serious level. Were the Russians to commit—-and lose—-a large number of veteran units, replacing them before the birth dearth hits the military in just a few years might be impossible.

All that can be said at this point is that it appeared Putin miscalculated, even without NATO/American involvement. Like Napoleon in Moscow, he has to at least be considering the timing, nature, and cost of a withdrawal, not just militarily but politically. Only a fool would not be thinking about that possibility right now.

But, as I said, all things can change on a dime. Current trajectories, however, suggest Putin made a serious mistake and won’t get out of it without some kind of serious damage to Russia. Meanwhile, the only one looking worse—-if that’s possible—-is the Demented Pervert who stands there waiving a wooden sword and blathering incoherent nostrums that even his loser of a veep can’t understand. His 34% approval on the conflict is, as they say in the news business, “poised” to tank even further.

We may just have avoided a major war, while at the same time seen the conflict further destroy the useless rodent that occupies the Oval Office when not eating his pudding or taking a nap.

Larry Schweikart

Rock drummer

Film maker

NYTimes #1 bestselling author

Political pundit

For even more truth-based current events, politics, and history content + resources, check out my VIP membership below

https://www.wildworldofhistory.com/vip