TRUMP'S SUCCESS IS WORKING AGAINST HIM

In the deportation cases, the more successful Trump is, the less the public is concerned

I won’t go into a detailed analysis of the Supes’ ruling (which really was just a punt back to the Fifth Circuit, saying, “hey guys, we can’t figure this out. Can you?”). The issue is simple, but difficult at the same time. “WHEN CAN YOU DEPORT MASSES OF PEOPLE?”

Obviously, the Supes said, “gee, we don’t know. Here Fifth, what do you say?” All the Supes really said was that two hours wasn’t enough preparation time before deporting someone under the Alien and Enemies Act, because it wasn’t enough time for them to prove they were here legally. But it did not rule on how you get rid of tens of thousands at once, since it’s impossible to go through immigration courts.

Jeff Childers, in a great column (toward the bottom) argues that Trump may be laying the groundwork for suspending Habeas Corpus. The problem there is you need Congress to rubber stamp it, and that won’t happen. EVEN if we can get the House (always dubious with these scudnuckles) you would have a filibuster in the Senate, and no way we have 61 votes. So Trump could ignore, as Lincoln did, and face impeachment (which, given the composition of the House and Senate, might be close on this one). Even at that Childers thinks Trump has a plan, but isn’t sure yet what it is.

Here is the problem for Trump: his success hurts his efforts to engage in mass deportation. The single biggest weapon he had was the illegal criminal gangs taking over areas of Denver, Chicago, New York, and other cities. That threat of violence led people to shout, “GET THEM OUT!” But the more gangbangers he ships out, the smaller the threat, and the less immediacy in the eyes of the public.

Moreover, Trump has totally succeeded in closing the border. That is huge, and again it works against Trump because again, the most visible threat (columns of invaders) no longer exists. There is a solid economic argument against illegal aliens (they deprive Americans of jobs) and a solid judicial argument (you cannot have armies of fungalmuffins flaunting the law) but in the end, these are harder to make resonate with the general public.

Let me be clear: I THINK EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM NEEDS TO GO, But I’m afraid at the end of all of this the unwillingness of Congress to back Trump will disable the habeas approach; the courts with their (somewhat legitimate) claim that genuine citizens could be caught up and deported in massive dragnets will block the use of the Alien and Enemies Act; and we’ll be back to traditional (but at least, enforced) immigration law.

This will be highly, massively below what Trump wanted and what the public originally supported, but the public is fickle.

I think by 2028, the every best we will have gotten is a closed border, the worst of the violent criminal gangs out, and a muscular but traditional illegal immigration deportation system. Trump could, with some Congressional help, greatly expand the current system; could with incentives cause millions to leave; but I don’t think well see the removal of the large majority of illegals here. That means that when you prioritize removing illegals, you must do so strategically—-in cities that will be most likely to appreciate it (say, NYC right now); to play upon the DemoKKKrat Civil War of illegals v. inner city residents; and to whenever possible use it to electoral advantage.

Callous, I know. Disheartening, I know. But I call ‘em as I see ‘em.

Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchwe94560)

Rock drummer, Film maker,NYTimes #1 bestselling author

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