The Pre-Primary Primary

Thinks can change, usually don't

We haven’t even come into the second half of 2023 yet and the primaries are in full swing. While virtually all primaries ebb and flow a little, few seldom make significant U-turns.

Thinking back to 2008, Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in to win. But (as she did in 2016) she forgot you have to actually round the bases. She let Barack Obama steal Iowa and played catchup from there out. And, she didn’t yet have the superdelegate bribe/threat machine in place that she had in 2016.

In 2016, Trump took an early lead in the polls, and by summer was ahead in most if not all. Of course, all the “experts” said he would fade when people a) heard him actually talk; b) when the media examined his record; c) when he got to the debates; d) any other insane reason they could give. In fact, the only time Trump failed to hold the top spot in the polls was for about a week period in the fall of 2015 when Ben Carson briefly ascended, then fell. In fact, Trump never fell below 40% in any poll after March/April 2015.

Things can change, but usually only because of significant outside events, which is to day that not often do candidates themselves sink their own campaigns or dramatically raise them. (One exception was George H. W. Bush’s apparent, though misrepresented, encounter with a grocery store scanner in the 1992 campaign).

As of right now, however, Donald Trump not only is in the driver’s seat, but there isn’t anyone else even in the car. One of the GOPe’s darlings, Nick Knack Haley, stepped in it big time this week with her swipe at Gov. Ron DeSantis and his ongoing war with the Groomer Kingdom, Disney. Haley invited Disney to pack up and move to South Carolina. Riiiiight.

My criticism of RDS over Disney isn’t that he’s engaged in a fight, but that he has been slickly outmaneuvered so far—-then, just when Disney launched a counterattack, he withdrew to a national “book tour” (which is to say a national campaign tour but he still refuses to admit he’s campaigning.) Therefore he has not been nearly as effective as once thought; and his choices to negotiate with Reedy Creek got scobbed. This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the “I’ll pick personnel better than Trump” motif he is running on. Wait, excuse me, that he isn’t running on.

Whatever.

But worse for RDS, by abandoning Florida for Michigan, the Reagan Library, and points in between while the state has some serious issues looks very “Bidenish” and/or clueless. And once again, it badly reflects on his personnel choices, in that someone is advising him to do this!!

As a result, over the last couple of weeks Trump has maintained, and, in some cases, increased his lead ranging from 20-40 points.

On the DemoKKKrat side, however, a different dynamic is in place. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is a “name” but only to old-timers. For younger people, he is a relative unknown who fought the vax. Now, remember, it is da youts who willingly went along with the vax, even though it kills them at higher rates than anyone else. So I’m not sure how Bobby’s anti-vax stance will help him. Likewise, it is only those over 50 who really remember the Afghanistan and Iraq quagmires. Younger voters do no. Therefore the Uke disaster will not resonate with them as much as older folk.

But older DemoKKKrats are tied to Rutabaga. Currencly RFK, Jr. is at about 16%—-a number that will dramatically increase as he gets more name recognition. In terms of the primary, he has no chance. He has already acknowledged that without debates and with the first primary being conveniently moved to South Carolina, where “Van” Clyburn can manipulate the black vote for Rutabaga, he has little chance. Were he to be a third party candidate, he might siphon off 10-15% of Rutbaga’s vote, but after calling Biden his “friend,” I seriously doubt that will happen. (And by the way, over 60% of DemoKKKrats want another candidate and would be open to a third party candidate, which can only help Trump).

The most dangerous scenario for Republicans would be an RFK, Jr./Vivek Ramaswamy third party siphon, which would take more from Trump than it would from the Rutabaga.

Oh, and as for a Trump/RFK, Jr. ticket? Not in a zillion years. The pro-life, pro-gun people in the GOP would flat out revolt. In places like Wisconsin, where Trump (and only Trump) will need 70% of the evangelical vote with a high evangelical turnout, this would be a killer. It would also likely cost him Iowa, maybe even Florida. RFK is absolutely an anti-gunner/pro-choice guy. Those are nonstarters with the GOP base and Trump knows it. As for Ramaswamy, he is extremely attractive except for the fact that he is a Hindu. Religious toleration only goes so far. I, for one, cannot vote for anyone worshipping a death God, Shiva. This is more than a “choice.” It’s a commandment that I don’t see how any Christian can violate.

Thus a year and a half out, Trump will walk into the nomination; so will Rutabaga. If anyone else wants to play, they need to be in the choir, not in the solo spot.

Larry Schweikart

Rock drummer, Film maker, NYTimes #1 bestselling author, Political pundit

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