Shall we review who the Trump voters are?
They simply don't vote for anyone else.
There are two great books I recommend for anyone seeking to understand who the Trump voters were, and are. The first is Bellwether Blues by Jonathan Jacubowski, a look at Ohio’s Obama counties in 2012 that flipped—-not a little, but heavily—-for Donald Trump in 2016. The second is The Great Revolt by Salena Zito and Brad Todd, which not only used voter turnout data but—-like Bellwether Blues—-in depth interviews. Anyone who takes the time to read these interviews will understand by a Ron DeSantis, a Chris Christie, a Nikki Haley, a Tim Scott will absolutely NOT get these people out to vote.
Jacubowski found Wood County, OH, as the “perfect proxy” for Millennial voting patterns. Without Millennials, Wood would be red. The county, as of 2018, was already getting younger by almost a year; about 70% of Wood’s voters sere “independent” (of which we’ll have more to say in a minute); and Trump beat Cankles in 2016 by 8% there. What is more interesting, the county went to Obama by the same margin in 2008, but Obama’s margin was cut in half by 2012. Jacobowski found the northern “Blue Wall” with Lucas County reversed with Trump and Bowling Green State U. students were overwhelmed by non-college voters. Keep that in mind.
After running the statistics, Jacubowski interviewed voters who 1) were U.S. citizens, 2) were Wood Co. residents, 3) Supported Obama in 08 or 2012 but swung to Trump, and 4) were Millennials. Take Arron Lawrence, a black Christian who struggled, especially after he got married. Reluctant to vote for Trump, he was swayed by his father who explained to him the poverty trap. Or consider a single mother, Tiffany Crain, who, after seeing an ultrasound, could not abort her child. The difference between Donald Trump and Cankles was stark to her, and left her no choice.
Jacubowski gives dozens more, each with their reasons. NONE were what you might call Republican partisans. None were “party regulars.” They were only attracted to Trump.
Even more impressive is The Great Revolt’s suvey of 2,000 Trump voters. Zito and Todd followed up with interviews, again finding the Trump voters were not “down the line” Republicans and in fact wouldn’t turn out to vote unless Trump was on the ticket—-even if he endorsed the other candidates.
Why? Because they did not trust the mainstream Republican Party, but hated the mainstream DemoKKKrat Party. Later, Richard Baris, using data from 2018, 2020, and 2022, calculated how many of these “Trump-only” voters there were and as of 2022 he put the number at 10-13 million. These people are not “gettable” by other Rs, and won’t consider voting for a DemoKKKrat. They are truly the “deplorables” who see Trump as the only person willing to fight for them. All the others—-as their interviews make clear—-are part of the system.
For anyone supporting any candidate but Trump, it is essential to read these two books with an open mind and not dismiss these people as somehow “not here” in 2024. If anything, there are more of them than ever. Baris analyzed the recent Echelon Poll that had Trump beating Biden by 2-3, and found that among the unregistered voters Trump was winning by 20!! You say, “What good does that do us? They are unregistered.” Yep, and we’ve got over a year to register them. Baris and lawyer Robert Barnes presented a plan to register 700,000 in the Midwest swing states to donors, who blew them off. They would rather spend money on fancy ads that do not move the needle. But this is the gold mine. And right now these unregistered voters don’t care for Republicans—-but they would register to vote for Trump.
Larry Schweikart
Rock drummer, Film maker,NYTimes #1 bestselling author