Post-primary Night Analysis

All things are not what they seem

There was certainly one message that emerged from last night’s primaries, and that was that Donald Trump still has it. He ran the table on his endorsed candidates, from Michigan to Arizona. In Michigan, John Gibbs beat impeachment-voter Peter Meijer in MI 3. This means that now of all the GOP congressmen who voted for impeachment, only four have survived, and one of those, Liz Cheney, will be gone in a couple of weeks. Too bad, so sad.

Trump couldn’t lose in Missouri, where he endorsed “Eric,” meaning either Eric Schmitt (who won) or Eric Greitens (a Don, Jr. favorite). Greitens had a lot of domestic abuse accusation-baggage and might have lost the general. Schmitt was a terrific Attorney General, but came down wrong on the Uke war. We’ll see if that defines him as “Swamp.” But Schmitt effectively takes Missouri off the table for the DemoKKKrats in the Senate, and moves us one step closer to a takeover of the upper house.

But the real action was in the Grand Canyon State where the last vestiges of the McTurd Machine were finally exorcised with Blake Masters’ victory in the Senate primary and Kari Lake’s victory in the governorship. Lake, especially irritates leftoids, which tells you she is absolutely the woman we need.

Remember, the Great Rush Limbaugh always told us, “They will tell you whom they fear” and indeed they do. Some think the margin was closer that it should be or that the pollsters were really wrong (maybe they were). The early voting went heavily for KTR, but election day was 2:1 for Lake. Why? Because, as Charlie Kirk and the guys on the Turning Point network said, conservatives just do not trust the postal system and delivered their early mail-in ballots in person!

But there were dynamics at work here that I don’t think people fully appreciated.

First, Lake faced a shocking $20 million negative ad blitz, an amazing amount for a governor’s race. Second, the fractured field featured former Congressman Matt Salmon, who dropped out—-but not until very late. Did that cost Karrin Taylor-Robson? Maybe. Salmon got about 4% of the vote. But I think an overwhelming number of Salmon’s voters went to KTR, and thus it really was a head-to-head matchup . . . something Blake Masters did not face. In the Senate race, All Hat No Cattle Mark Brnovich remained in the race and likely enabled Masters to win. Had it just been Lamon v. Masters, the outcome may have been different.

But all down the line, the MAGA candidates won, from Mark Finchem (who championed the audit) to Trump-endorsed House candidate Eli Crane. In the case of State Speaker of the House, Rusty Bowers—-who had derailed audit efforts—-he, too got the Trump treatment as he was booted out.

In other words, McTurdism is dead, finally. And this is seen in the Tweets by The Meg, who lamented Lake’s victory and all but begged for the Hobbit, Katie Hobbs, to win in November.

Now, about the Kansas abortion bill. This was a constitutional amendment that was, despite its title, extremely confusing. Different legal analysts including Robert Barnes have commented on the Byzantine language. In such a case, voters voted against something they absolutely didn’t understand. This will always be a negative vote, regardless of the issue. No voter will take a chance on change unless he knows exactly what the change will be. And the Hoax News media of course did their best to confuse the subject and muddy the waters.

Contrary to what you might hear from the Hoax News, this does little to show the “mood” of the country toward the Dobbs decision or abortion. About 2/3s of the country oppose any sort of partial-birth or 3rd trimester abortion; and about 2/3 approve of first trimester abortion, with heavy support for exemptions from the laws for rape, incest, or health of the mother. Pro-life forces need to regroup, write clearer laws, and make sure they understand where they are in the national attitude.

Finally, about those “generic” polls. Conservatives are freaking out because in the last few weeks the generic polls have swung from R+8 or higher to R+3 or even R+1. Whassup with that?

I have always maintained that the early R+8 polls were a little misleading because they reflected a reaction to Biteme, and this November he isn’t on the ballot. Instead, as candidates’ names became attached to generic seats (on both sides) the dirt on them inevitably emerged, and slowly it became about the specific candidate, not Rutabaga.

However, I do think that, pendulum-like, we will see another slight swing back to the GOP after the dirt filters out on both sides. This is especially true if Republican candidates successfully tie the DemoKKKrats to Biteme’s horrific policies. So, as I always say, ultimately it’s about the candidates.

So where does that put us? I still think the GOP wins a floor of 40 more seats in the House, a ceiling of 50. I think we emerge in the Senate with a 1-vote margin as Vance and Budd hold, Laxalt and Masters win, and Oz and Walker (for now0 lose.

But it’s not even Labor Day yet. And remember we may well unseat the evil Lisa MurCowSki with a MAGA-ite Kelly Tshibaka. So we could, on the upside, win AZ, NV, and GA and hold NC, OH, and PA for a 3-vote margin . . . but really an effective 4-vote margin with the unseating of MurCowSki. And we are likely to see a MAGA core of senators, aligning with Rand Paul, Marsha Blackburn, Ron Johnson and Josh Hawley and occasionally Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, of 10-11 that could come close to controlling the Swampers. It would set the stage ofr 24, where more MAGA senators could attain an even stronger grip.

Larry Schweikart

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