Harvest or . . . Hive?
What's going on with the electorate?
I had a chance to speak with Richard Baris, pollster and head of the Big Data Poll/People’s Pundit Daily. He has been, over time, the most accurate pollster out there. So he missed some in 2022 . . . who didn’t? Still, Rich is out there constantly trying to refine his samples and his models and doesn’t skew results to conform to data he wants to see.
We talked about the state of the electorate today, and more important, the likely state of the electorate in 2024. What issues, I asked, specifically are bad for DemoKKKrats? “It isn’t about issues. We found that Joe Biden is exceptionally unpopular. We found that on issues of crime, for example, DemoKKKrats do very poorly, but also on many other issues. And it doesn’t matter.”
Baris opined that based on his 2022 polling, his respondents who put crime as the top issue nevertheless (for example) in Pennsylvania voted for John Fetterman, not the guy likely to be tougher on crime, Mehmet Oz. Across the spectrum on issue after issue, DemoKKKrat or so-called “undecided voters” should be trending Republican but they seem impervious to deteriorating conditions in their lives.
He called this the hive mentality at work. I asked if the fact that without the China Virus, we might expect fewer phony ballots coming from harvesting, but Baris thought the “DemoKKKrats have perfected their machinery during [the China Virus]” and will be able to run that play again.
In other words, two big points that I normally referred to as possible rays of hope—-Rutabaga’s unpopularity and the shorter “early-vote” window—-won’t make much difference in Baris’s eyes as of today. He thought it possible that the DemoKKKrats still might usher Rutabaga out of office and replace him, but thought that would not change the overall dynamics of the race. “It’s a hive mentality, man” he said.
The reality of more ballot harvesting is totally lost on GOP insiders. “Donors,” he said, “are worried about access, not an agenda.” This reinforces what “Sundance” at the “Conservative Treehouse” has said for some time, namely that the GOP wants power so they can get money, while DemoKKKrats want money so they can get power.
Two things seem certain as of April 2023: Trump will be the candidate for the Republicans, and many of the structural impediments that cheated him in 2020 still are in place.
Larry Schweikart
Rock drummer, Film maker, NYTimes #1 bestselling author, Political pundit
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