Easy on Reading the Tea Leaves

Sometimes elections have little to do with things we wish were important

Yesterday’s mayor race in Jacksonville, Florida, along with the primary GOP governor race in Kentucky, were seized upon by supporters and detractors of both President Donald Trump and challenger (though he still hasn’t admitted it) Ron DeSantis. In the Kentucky race, sitting Attorney General Daniel Cameron beat DeSantis supported Kelly Craft The Trump delegation on Twitter was quick to celebrate.

First, DeSantis had no place whatsoever inserting himself into a state governor primary race at this point. It was beyond silly. Clearly he was trying to portray himself as someone with “influence” and as a “king maker.” Fail. And again—-I’ve been harping on this for some time now—-this further illustrates his poor judgment in personnel, something often attributed to President Trump. Whoever on his team had recommended he get involved this way should be fired. He has enough to worry about with his polling slipping from averages of 30% just two months ago to the mid-teens today.

BUT . . .Trumpers should not celebrate quite so quickly, as Cameron has been described as a “McConnell ally,” was a former McConnell aide, and was endorsed by Yertle. At the very least he deserves a skeptical eye from the MAGA aisle. He has been a good Kentucky AG . . . but Jeff Sessions was a good Alabama Senator til the time came for him to step up as Trump’s Attorney General. Then all of a sudden Buford Pusser became Buford Pussy. As with the new head of Twit, I will cut Cameron slack until he proves I should not. But these aren’t the best creds to have, and the fact that Yertle isn’t squealing about this outcome alone makes me nervous. (Clearly, Cameron would be better than Beshear . . . I think).

Then there was the Jacksonville, Florida mayor race, won by Donna Deegan (DemoKKKrat) over Daniel Davis. Jacksonville was the largest city in the country with a Republican mayor prior to last night. DeSantis critics are ripping the governor for not staying home and paying attention to this key race.

Maybe.

A few years ago I was in Jacksonville with a friend, a former judge there. And there was a mayor election going on. A white Republican was running unopposed. I thought, “this is odd.” “What’s going on?” I asked my friend. He answered, “the Republicans and the DemoKKKrats agreed that if the DemoKKKrats would not oppose the mayor this time, the Republicans would not run a candidate in in the police chief/sheriff race.” In other words, deals were cut long before the election to ensure that each party got a major player. I don’t know if that’s the case this time around, but can say for certain it has happened in the past. Yes, the GOP ran Davis this time. Prior deals? Possibly.

Things don’t always appear as they seem at the local level, where a handful of votes can make a difference, or where animosities are toxic. I certainly don’t know if DeSantis’s presence or campaigning there would have made a difference.

All I know is that one can read way too much into local or even state elections, especially when it comes to endorsements. Last November, many Trump-endorsed candidates lost. Because of Trump? No. Most lost because the RNC denied them funds, or because at the last minute they began to run away from Trump rather than toward him.

Richard Baris continues to poll and his numbers show that Trump continues to gain among groups thought to be trending toward DeSantis, particularly white women and younger people. DeSantis, it seems, has a large lead over Trump among 40-50 year old white men, especially those with college educations. (This is also one of the biggest pro-abort votes in the country). Trump does very well with white married women.

But all of these tea leaves are being read miles away from the destination, as the primaries won’t start for seven months, and the general election isn’t for a year and a half. This is a lifetime in politics.

Larry Schweikart

Rock drummer, Film maker, NYTimes #1 bestselling author

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