An Uncertain Senate

Control of the Upper Chamber rests on Five States

In my last column before heading out to my first vacation in several years, I wanted to take a quick look at the Senate and the 2022 race. This will be a red wave, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we will gain control of the Senate, and certainly doesn’t mean we’ll have functional control.

The Senate will come down to five races, as I think Ted Budd in North Carolina is safe. Further, I think Kelly Tshibaka will beat MurCowSki in Alaska. This won’t change the numbers but will greatly affect the dynamics, as with MurCowSki, Minion, and Susan (“Tom”) Collins, effectively we are at a 53-47 disadvantage right now. Yes, those three jigglepooters all vote for Yertle in the GOP caucus, but that’s about it. None of the three are reliable votes on anything. Manchin-on-a-Hill and Enema are more reliable conservative votes than these three drooling dylroids. Side note: for years Manchin-on-a-Hill infuriated conservatives because he’d “talk right, vote left.” He has now given up talking and is just voting right on several big issues.

Hurts, don’t it, squidpuddles?

So for actual caucus control, we need to net a one seat gane. For Operational Control—-functional control—-we need at least a net two-seat gain, and likely net three to offset the two remaining (assuming MurCowSki loses). As of now—-and we aren’t even at Labor Day so things haven’t heated up yet, I think Laxalt wins; I think Vance, Oz, Masters (assuming he wins the primary), and Walker are in dogfights. Laxalt’s race would be a D-R flip.

Vance should be the easiest of the four. Ohio has a huge GOP registration advantage in terms of actual likely voters. Even people with “concerns,” I think, will support him. Vance’s race is an R-R hold.

Oz has a tough race as Pennsylvania still has a sizeable DemoKKKrat voter registration advantage and, of course, has the Philly Cheat going. Moreover, while it’s still early, Oz has yet to completely unite the GOP base. He must convince conservatives that he is not a globalist who will throw money at the Ukes or support vax nonsense. Right now I think he’s down two-to-five in the race. This race is critical because if he loses it would be an R-D flip.

Georgia is an even tougher call. No one, and I mean not even Richard Baris, had the GOP pimrary for governor called within a galaxy of the final. Everyone forgot that Brian Kemp was (other than Kristi Noem, who never locked down South Dakota) the first governor to reopen during the lockdowns. That carried a lot of weight.

Now, polling has Herschel Walker down anywhere from two to nine. I think it’s probably somewhere in between. It’s a totally winnable race, but Walker needs to come out with a solid mea culpa on why he did not identify his out-of-wedlock kids, say, “I made some personal mistakes, but they pale in contrast to the policy armageddon facing us all. He has to make the race about Warlock, not himself; and about the Rutabaga and his Warlock-supported policies. If the election were today, I’d have Georgia as a D hold, but it’s very flippable and there is lots of time.

Finally, in Arizona, Blake Masters, the Trump-endorsed candidate is in the lead. He can beat Moonman Mark, but it will be a fight. Kelly won’t just roll over like a stick of cheese in the sun. Masters will have to push him out.

The priorities therefore are to hold Georgia and Ohio, win Nevada and Arizona, which will be easier than holding Pennsylvania, and finally, if possible, win Pennsylvania. From there we can dream about a true red-wave flip of Colorado or Washington state.

Right now, I think we will end up winning three of the five, losing Pennsylvania and Georgia. That would leave us in a +1 majority, with Tshibaka eliminating an anti-GOP vote in MurCowSki for a net operational vote gain of two. In other words, Minion and Tom Collins could still combine to stifle any GOP agenda. We can stop the Rutabaga, but to put him on defense, we need that fourth victory of these five.

Now, I’m going on vacation—-my first in four years. I’ll return the final week of July. We’ll see where we are there.

Larry Schweikart

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NYTimes #1 bestselling author

Political pundit

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