Abortion, Inflation, Invasion
And there are probably still issues we haven't even identified that will shape the 2024 race.
Yesterday the Arizona Supreme Court sent shock waves through the political landscape by voiding the 2022 Arizona abortion law in favor of the 1864 law that prohibited all abortions except in the case of the life of the mother. How this came about is something of a mystery. Before I get into the weeds, let’s cut to the chase: this will bring out some pro-Moloch murderers in the fall, no doubt.
But will it overcome the other issues that are currently driving President Trump’s steady ascent and Rutabaga’s fitting decline? Maybe not. As Richard Baris (but other pollsters) show, even before his statement on abortion—-where he took a “state’s rights” approach to abortion—-President Trump had closed the gap dramatically on Rutabaga on the abortion issue. In some polls the difference was only a point. That is nowhere near significant enough to overcome Trump’s often substantial lead in all other issues. Trump now leads in “honesty” and “trust” and in every “management” category out there, such as the ability to manage foreign affairs and the budget. For example, Rutabaga is not viewed as a “strong leader” according to Gallup. In addition, Trump is “winning back the anti-Trump voters.”
Staying focused on issues, however, Baris has shown that the top three issues (each taking the #1 spot in various polls) are inflation, jobs/the economy, and the illegal invasion. While it is significant that abortion is not in that top three, we should not discount that it won’t be a factor. The question then becomes, “if you are having trouble paying rent and feeding your family, how important is it to you that someone you don’t even know will be deprived of an abortion?” I think the answer to that is “a small number.”
Meanwhile, although temporarily obscured by the Arizona abortion story, inflation continues to surge. It has not been slowed, let alone killed as Rutabaga seems to think. Not only did inflation come in this month hotter than expected, but it came in hotter in the worst two areas for voters: food and rent. Currently food is trending on an annual rate of over 10%, or approaching hyperinflation levels. Rents in major cities were already at the danger level. Maslow’s hierarchy will move this to the top of the voting pyramid. When combined with the ongoing invasion of illegal criminals, Rutabaga is in deep trouble.
Then there is this little story: due to the late nature of the DemoKKKrat convention, technically Rutabaga won’t be eligible to be on the ballot in Alabama and Ohio. GOP Secretaries of State have already warned the Rutabaga campaign of this, which has blown off such warnings by saying in the past, states have granted exemptions. But what if the GOP plays hardball? In terms of the Electoral College, Rutabaga not being on the ballot in Ohio and Alabama wouldn’t matter—-both will easily go to Trump. But in terms of popular vote, that would mean 3.5 million Biden votes from 2020 would not appear in the popular vote total. Something to think about.
Now, the Arizona Supreme Court ruling. In 2022, the Arizona legislature crafted a law before the Dobbs ruling came out. It did not specifically repeal a strict 1864 law already on the books that prohibited all abortions except in the case of danger to the mother’s health. Last week the Arizona Supes ruled that the 1864 law was valid, having never been repealed. Immediately the pro-Moloch harpies came out of the woodwork, suggesting that we were back to an age of “corsets.” Of course, the Arizona legislature can no repeal the 1864 law—-but some pro-life hardliners are balking. Whether or not I agree with the law (I don’t) is irrelevant: it would be a severe blow to the Arizona GOP’s chances in November if it stands. Merely from the perspective of propaganda, it’s a terrible look. Those Republicans in the Arizona legislature are letting the perfect stand in the way of the good and may even throw Arizona—-where Trump has been leading comfortably, but Kari Lake trailing—-into chaos.
That said, nationally Richard Baris has emphasized that the inflation/pocketbook issues will still edge out abortion by November. I tend to agree, in that inflation and jobs are an immediate threat to one’s survival, while abortion is a theoretical issue for most voters. But we shall see. Trump crafted a perfect position, which was to reiterate Dobbs. Let the states decide. Now the states must come through and not look foolish.
Larry Schweikart
Rock drummer, Film maker,NYTimes #1 bestselling author
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